Saturday, 24 December 2016

Post Demonetization: Miseries and Vagaries


      Recently, Mr Arvind Panagariya, Vice-Chairman of Niti Aayog vented his views on demonetization policy.  The proverb says “the war is essential for peace;” with the same analogy, for higher GDP a gigantic shock in the form stringent action against black money holders is required.  In his words “the supply chains that get temporarily disrupted will recreate themselves quickly, like rebuilding of New Oreleans after Katrina devastation.”  So, sometime devastation is needed to cleave the plateau.  He said the transition is painful; India would recover the loss in growth in the current quarter very soon.  Some form of incentives to support digital transaction that substantially improve the economy, he replied.  In his opinion the scrapping of currency notes never to be looked as an isolated entity; it is the integral part of larger perspectives.  “India has a long way to go in terms of setting policies,” he said.  Regarding issuance of 59 directives from Reserve Bank of India and the government his observations are tangible.  Both, the Central bank and government have the integrated approach towards the implementation of the policy; though some hiccups are noticed.  With regards to non-performing assets, his observations are coinciding with the government; since, the government is very serious on this issue.  The government plea regarding improvement in ranking by MOODY – the US agency engage in worldwide ranking on the basis of countries economic assets and performance – has recently been rejected.
                     
             Harsh Mander – a human rights worker and writer – has surveyed a large number of villages from Odisha state.  The casual workers, street vendors, slum dwellers, homeless people, laborers, tribal communities, self-help group volunteers, widows, old people are the worst sufferers due to withdrawal of old currency.  Those who have bank accounts have to travel many a times to withdraw a paltry amount and that too due to mercy of bankers.  The youths who have migrated to different cities for work are either unemployed or unable to send money to old parents as youths have refused to accept old notes from the employer.  The farmers are not employing daily wagers for different agricultural operations due to paucity of funds; and, will face vagary of rain god after three consecutive years of less rainfall.  They have to loose entire crops as heavy rains are expected soon.  The misery through which they are passing is touching the hearts of readers. “But Modi devata turned out to be even more cruel than Indra devata,” these sarcastic remarks from villagers explains the worst scenario due to utter negligence and policy failure on the part of central government.  The vicious economic structure in Indian villages has been broken down due to sheer disarray.  “We are already cashless” the remark from half nude villagers is a slap on government when they were asked about cashless economy and its uses.

            The India is vertically divided in to two, the urban and the rural; both are diagonally opposite.  The large section of the society – almost 65 per cent - resides in villages are the worst sufferers.  There is no match between an urbanite computer savy and a person from far flung village as if both are from two different planets.  Modi’s almost all policies were rural centric except the present one.  The Modi government has taken utmost care while implementation of other policies, however, in the present case, the villagers are facing agonies after agonies due to withdrawal of old currency, though objectives were good but implementation is faulty.  How person of Arvind Panagariya’s stature – who is at the helm of affair - understands the need based problem of villagers is a basic question?


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