Saturday, 10 December 2016

Post Demonetization: Thirty Second Day


            Supreme Court (SC) passed strictures on economic reform policy.  Observations of SC are noteworthy; “When you framed policy, was any mind applied? Was there a plan or was it brought in an impulse?” court questioned and no satisfactory response was received from the government.  On December 14 the SC will hear the argument from the respondent.  It is the duty of Modi government to fight the battle, if looser; government will have to resign.

            The Income Tax department and Enforcement Directorate decided to begin massive assessment exercise and will scrutinize all offbeat and suspicious accounts.  To outflank the unending official procedures, department is planning to bestow the discretionary powers to concerned officers.  Processing and inferring more than 40 crore accounts is not an escapade.  Member of task force on direct taxes said “The size is large, there is need to work out rational solutions.  It has to be rule based and non-discretionary.  Otherwise, the return of investment in such investigation may be negative.”  The observations are extremely important, if officers are granted discretionary powers then can be used as per their vagary (Inspector raj).

            Let me quote two examples.  Jewelry firm from Delhi has earned Rs 75 crore between 8 pm to 12 midnight on November, 8; the IT department is investigating at three branches of a firm regarding sale of 200 – 250 kg of gold.  Surprisingly, the jeweler has not obtained PAN card details of customers.  The Jeweler intentionally showed sale below Rs 2 lakh per customer since the law permits sale below the limit without PAN number.  The proprietor denied allegations against him.  Second, a novel way of cheating was noticed.  Money launderers have open fake accounts in the name woman and her parents without their knowledge and deposited Rs 4.25 crores.  When concerned questioned the lady, it was an ictus for the family.  Such instances are the tip of iceberg.  It is practically difficult to unearth each and every misdeed.  On an average, every day, minimum of Rs one hundred crore of illegal transactions, hard currency transfer and alleged wealth is being detected.

            To outflank the money crunch crises, innovative methods are being utilized.  Organizers of annual agricultural fair near Pune have distributed coupons of Rs 100 to farmers in exchange of Rs 2,000 note.  Internal currency system was found useful and farmers were happy to carry out financial transactions.  A total of 10 lakh visitors have visited a fair and business of Rs 10 crore was recorded by the organizers in a day.

            Figures across the country indicated drop in financial activities in real estate sector.  To quote a few, the percentage of drop in real estate sector is 39% from Mumbai, 16.4% from Delhi, 43% from Gujarat, 66% from Jharkhand, 20% from Punjab and 30% from Chandigarh.  In above cases, the deal was done before annunciation of policy, however, sundry number of deals is registered after November 8.

            It seems, politicians are playing their own cards in and outside Parliament.  The unity among UPA as well as within NDA is shattered.  Shiv Sena happen to have close association with opposition; and JD (U) fraction, BJD, TSR are affiliated to ruling party.  In Rajya Sabha, because of lack of quorum (minimum 25 MPs) the house adjourned till coming Wednesday.  In Lok Sabha, the opposition was ready for discussion but ruling party has not allowed to debate, resulted in huddle due to slogan shouting and blame game.   Rahul Gandhi, Vice President Congress Party told the media that he wanted to speak about the biggest scam committed by PM single-handedly.  The opposition is questioning regarding reduction of import duty on wheat from 10% to zero when the bumper buffer stock is available, it probably due to cash crunch and to avoid food riots.  Union Commerce Minister and Industry Minister Nirmala Sitaraman stated that the policy is to make economy digitized and cleaner.  The Reserve Bank of India has instructed banks to circulate new Rs 500 notes through ATM.  “Digital transactions have surged up to 1,000 per cent” said Law and IT Minister, Ravi Shankar Prasad.  The decision of printing of plastic currency notes is in progress, it was announced by the government in the Parliament.

            Mr Kaushik Basu, former Chief Economic Adviser of India warned the government regarding enhancement in sufferings of people and also new form of corruption practices in society due to demonetization.  Due to complexity in the policy, collateral damages are many more.  The difference - deposition of Rs 12 lakh crore old notes minus circulation to the most Rs 6 lakh crore new notes - will hamper the overall growth.  In his opinion the only poor are the sufferers.  There will be eminent slump in growth of economy as GDP is likely to go down to 6.9 per cent, he said.  He described the term “money mule” for those who will convert black money to white.  “Black money is 20 to 25 per cent of GDP, some time will be required for digital mode so as to curb illegal practices, change in mind set is required, work burden has increased unnecessarily” are some of the quotes from his lecture at IIT, Mumbai.
  

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